Aims: The goal of this module is to provide students with an understanding and working knowledge of statistical techniques for the empirical analysis and...

Aims: The goal of this module is to provide students with an understanding and working knowledge of statistical techniques for the empirical analysis and forecasting of time series in macroeconomics and, to a lesser extent, finance. Although the focus of the module is primarily applied, there will also be some emphasis on the theoretical foundations of the techniques analyzed.

Topics
1. Univariate Time Series
Topics include: Tests for structural breaks; Nonlinear models of the conditional mean; Models of the conditional variance: ARCH/GARCH
2. Multivariate Time Series
Topics include: VAR; Structural VAR; Impulse-response analysis; Granger causality; Cointegration
3. Elements of forecasting
Topics include: Forecasting with regression models; Model selection and information criteria; Forecast evaluation and Combination; Forecasting with many predictors: data-reduction methods

Aims: To provide final year students with the opportunity to explore the way in which economic theory and evidence can be used to analyse topical policy...

Aims: To provide final year students with the opportunity to explore the way in which economic theory and evidence can be used to analyse topical policy issues. The module should be of particular value to students who intend to work as professional economists in government departments or other agencies, where they will be expected to provide economic analysis and advice on specific issues of policy, including new and unfamiliar issues about which textbooks say very little.

Suitable for: Final year Economics (L100 / L101 / L102) students. This module is available to students who have already completed the three 2nd year core modules: ECON0013: Microeconomics, ECON0016: Macroeconomic Theory and Policy and ECON0019: Quantitative Economics and Econometrics. A thorough understanding of the material taught in the core modules will be assumed in the teaching of ECON0024. Final year Geog/Econ and Phil/Econ students *may* take this module if they are taking ECON0019 concurrently and are aware of the above. Further clarification can be sought by discussion with the Economics Personal Tutors in Geography and Philosophy respectively.

Prerequisites: ECON0013: Microeconomics, ECON0016: Macroeconomic Theory and Policy and ECON0019: Quantitative Economics and Econometrics (or equivalents).

Assumed knowledge: Students coming into the course should be proficient in using basic tools in microeconomics, macroeconomics, and applied econometrics. This includes the ability to solve basic consumer maximization problems (e.g., maximize utility subject to a budget constraint), understand supply and demand and market equilibria. They should also have an understanding of basic concepts in public economics such as externalities, public goods, taxation. Finally, they should have a working knowledge of essential tools in applied econometrics (e.g., regression, least squares, instrumental variables, difference in differences, regression discontinuity).